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A weekly newsletter about prediction markets and how they are useful to make decisions.

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Latest Issues

Recent posts by this newsletter. Browse the email archive.

OpenAI just fired its CEO Sam Altman?

Yesterday OpenAI fired its CEO:

16 days ago

Dear democrats and republicans, here is how to win the election

In the United States, a presidential election is not merely a routine voting process; rather, it unfolds as a spectacle that captivates the nation for an entire year. In January, the primaries begin: The two parties start selecting their no...

19 days ago

The Prediction of Zelda

The Legend of Zelda was just announced for a live-action movie. With producer Avi Arad of Marvel fame it got attention. Here is a good long summary article.

23 days ago

High Stakes Bet on CoViD's Origins

Previously, I wrote how prediction markets are good fact checkers with respect to war stories in Israel. Here is another discussion topic: Did CoViD-19 originate from a laboratory or from nature? Manifold says 72% lab.

a month ago

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    Writing is like thinking but permanently.

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