Abstraction
Jonathan MannForecasting and the future of AI.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 42 | Founded | 5 years ago | Last Issue | 13 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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abstraction.substack.comLatest Issues
Why Employment Stays Normal This Decade
art by ChatGPT
A few weeks ago I wrote why I think AI won’t lead to a white collar jobs apocalypse this decade. Shortly after publishing it, I went to the Overhang, an AI / forecasting conference in DC, where I got to argue about it face t...
Expectations for 2030
art by ChatGPT
Over the last few weeks, I hosted a forecast retreat, gave a talk on forecasting AI, went to the Overhang in DC, and attended EAG. During these events, people had radically divergent expectations for the next few years, so I...
Self-Deceiving AI
art by ChatGPT
Do you know someone who makes confident assertions only to turn around and deny them six months later when reality proves them wrong?
I got fed up to the point that when I learned about forecasting it looked like a silver...
When Our Leverage Evaporates
art by ChatGPT
Despite being doubtful that humanity will be able to precisely control powerful AI, I assign a relatively low probability to AI leading to civilizational collapse over the rest of the century (maybe 10%). Just the same, I wo...
AI Still Isn’t Coming for Your Job -- Yet
art by ChatGPT
Author's note: In 2023 I wrote AI Isn't Coming for Tech Jobs—Yet for Asterisk, along with a companion piece laying out the model. The core thesis held: Whatever the disruptions of AI, the number of tech jobs grew on net. My...
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