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Abstraction

Jonathan Mann

Forecasting and the future of AI.

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Substack
PricingOnly free issuesPublishesWeekly
Issues40Founded5 years agoLast Issue6 days ago
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Latest Issues

Self-Deceiving AI

art by ChatGPT

Do you know someone who makes confident assertions only to turn around and deny them six months later when reality proves them wrong?

I got fed up to the point that when I learned about forecasting it looked like a silver...

6 days ago
3
2

When Our Leverage Evaporates

art by ChatGPT

Despite being doubtful that humanity will be able to precisely control powerful AI, I assign a relatively low probability to AI leading to civilizational collapse over the rest of the century (maybe 10%). Just the same, I wo...

21 days ago
4
2

AI Still Isn’t Coming for Your Job -- Yet

art by ChatGPT

Author's note: In 2023 I wrote AI Isn't Coming for Tech Jobs—Yet for Asterisk, along with a companion piece laying out the model. The core thesis held: Whatever the disruptions of AI, the number of tech jobs grew on net. My...

3 months ago
9
1

The QueensLink Compromise

Source: reddit u/joshsvo / r/nycrail, adapted from the MTA subway map.

QueensLink would have been a signal of confidence in New York City's future. By reactivating an abandoned rail corridor, it would have connected southern Queens to the...

3 months ago
5

The Jagged Boom

After arguing about AI at LessOnline last weekend, I want to register my beliefs.

The short-timelines people are seeing something real, but the coming years probably won’t manifest as a rapid AI takeoff with an explosion in GDP.

More lik...

4 months ago
7
1

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