Abstraction
Jonathan MannForecasting and the future of AI.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 34 | Founded | 4 years ago | Last Issue | 4 months ago |
| Active | |||||
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abstraction.substack.comLatest Issues
Manufacturing Epistemic Density
Art by ChatGPT
About two weeks ago, my friend Varun threw a farewell party. He’s moving to the Bay Area. The apartment was full of researchers, founders, and the kinds of people who get it when it comes to how much AI is about to turn ever...
Abundists Should Hedge Their Bets
Art by ChatGPT
When I worked in government, an experienced colleague told me something that’s stayed with me: “Ever since ancient Rome, politicians who build roads win elections.” It’s an achievement people can see, and impossible for oppo...
The Bitter Pipeline
Art by ChatGPT
When I started building a forecasting bot for the Metaculus AI Benchmark, I was spending my own money. That meant using smaller, cheaper models and squeezing out every bit of signal I could through methodology.
I built a st...
Pre-Mortem and Sanity Check
art by ChatGPT
This is the fifth post in a series on building an AI forecasting bot. In previous posts, I covered the Broken Leg check (short-circuiting on breaking news) and classification and method selection (routing questions to the ri...
Decay Functions
This is the fourth post in a series on building an AI forecasting bot. In previous posts, I covered the Broken Leg check (short-circuiting on breaking news) and classification and method selection (routing questions to the right forecasting...
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