Macro Models
Frightened ParrotBetting on world economic events and elections
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 58 | Subscribers | Read | macromodels.substack.com |
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Latest Issues
Recent posts by this newsletter. Browse the email archive.
Betting Education: Part I
Programming note: My plan is to publish one slightly longer piece a week on Mondays. I have decided this is the right cadence.
Bitcoin and the Election
A crypto-enthusiast friend asked me how the price of Bitcoin would respond if Trump won. My first response was “I have no idea but probably up”. If I had to guess though, I’d say it rallies 25% if he wins and falls 25% if he loses. Here’s t...
Kalshi Gets Clearing House
Yesterday, the Commodities Futures Trading Commission granted Kalshi the right to operate a clearing house for their exchange. That’s the sort of thing that sounds boring but is actually extremely exciting.
Polymarket Odds ~ Nate Silver Model Odds
Polymarket is an online crypto exchange with close to $1 billion in volume on the U.S. election. As of Monday, August 26th, the odds on Polymarket were very close to the odds from Nate Silver’s model. I can’t blame the market/crypto-liberta...
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
Data scientist interested in macro betting.
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