Macro Models
Frightened ParrotBetting on world economic events and elections
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Twice weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 73 | Founded | 3 years ago | Last Issue | a month ago |
| Active | |||||
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macromodels.substack.comLatest Issues
The Lonely Role of a Sincere PM Evangelist
Professional gambler/consumer advocate Isaac Rose-Berman writes that Kalshi is like a casino in that it requires a steady stream of losing bettors to play a negative-sum game:
Kalshi pitches itself as morally superior to casinos because...
Market Maker Mondays (03/30)
I spent a few hours today reviewing Interactive Brokers’ prediction market pricing for the 2026 midterms. In theory, the exchange is peer-to-peer but exchanges often need an official market-maker to provide initial liquidity. Almost all the...
Mid-Week Commentary
A virtue of being an unemployed gambler in this era of ultra powerful metered intelligence is that I have lots of time to read as Claude figures math and coding things out for me. Here are my reactions to the things I read as Claude (who I...
Reza Pahlavi - Son of the Former Shah - Is Very Unlikely to The Next Leader of Iran
Disclosure: Financially, I am short Reza Pahlavi becoming the leader of Iran in 2026. Politically, I think Reza Pahlavi would be much better than current leadership; I also think many other anti-regime figures would be better suited to the...
The Decline of "Betting the Polling Average"
Nate Silver proved that there is a paying market for well-calibrated predictions about election results. However, his raw-materials were “polls”, and five related developments have challenged his method since he captivated America with his...
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
Data scientist interested in macro betting.
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