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Macro Models

Frightened Parrot

Betting on world economic events and elections

Platform
Substack
PricingOnly free issuesPublishesTwice weekly
Issues70SubscribersRead macromodels.substack.com

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Latest Issues

Recent posts by this newsletter. Browse the email archive.

Reza Pahlavi - Son of the Former Shah - Is Very Unlikely to The Next Leader of Iran

Disclosure: Financially, I am short Reza Pahlavi becoming the leader of Iran in 2026. Politically, I think Reza Pahlavi would be much better than current leadership; I also think many other anti-regime figures would be better suited to the ...

9 days ago
3
2

The Decline of "Betting the Polling Average"

Nate Silver proved that there is a paying market for well-calibrated predictions about election results. However, his raw-materials were “polls”, and five related developments have challenged his method since he captivated America with his ...

10 days ago
4
3

Iran Links and Market Pricing

I am experimenting with a new format for prediction market pricing about politics: links to useful sources, market pricing, and then my thoughts on related matters that don’t have market pricing.

11 days ago
4
2

Article Roundup and My Reactions

# 50 Cent Dollars on Liquidity

17 days ago
6
3

Authors

The writers behind this newsletter.

  • Frightened Parrot

    Data scientist interested in macro betting.

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