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Macro Models

Frightened Parrot

Betting on world economic events and elections

Platform
Substack
PricingOnly free issuesPublishesWeekly
Issues61SubscribersRead macromodels.substack.com

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Latest Issues

Recent posts by this newsletter. Browse the email archive.

Is the The Assad Regime Collapsing This Weekend?

For fast-moving news developments, I like to read high-quality news sources for broader context (Financial Times/New York Times/BBC/WSJ) and then check the prediction markets for quantitative estimates of relevant variables.

3 months ago
10
7

Irish Election Update

The Irish elections (November 29th) may be the least consequential elections of 2024. Two parties with nearly identical platforms - Fine Gael and Fianna Fail - will both finish with around 20% of first-place votes. They will then form a coa...

3 months ago
6
4

The Prediction Markets Underestimated Polling Error

Twitter’s infinite scroll contains many triumphant posts from betting market evangelists. Venture capitalists invested in prediction markets are particularly euphoric: “mainstream media is dead”, “polling is dead” and “prediction markets ar...

3 months ago
6
2

Betting Education: Part I

Programming note: My plan is to publish one slightly longer piece a week on Mondays. I have decided this is the right cadence.

6 months ago
5
3

Authors

The writers behind this newsletter.

  • Frightened Parrot

    Data scientist interested in macro betting.

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