Betting on world economic events and elections
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For fast-moving news developments, I like to read high-quality news sources for broader context (Financial Times/New York Times/BBC/WSJ) and then check the prediction markets for quantitative estimates of relevant variables.
The Irish elections (November 29th) may be the least consequential elections of 2024. Two parties with nearly identical platforms - Fine Gael and Fianna Fail - will both finish with around 20% of first-place votes. They will then form a coa...
Twitter’s infinite scroll contains many triumphant posts from betting market evangelists. Venture capitalists invested in prediction markets are particularly euphoric: “mainstream media is dead”, “polling is dead” and “prediction markets ar...
Programming note: My plan is to publish one slightly longer piece a week on Mondays. I have decided this is the right cadence.
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