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Artwork for Planned Obsolescence

Planned Obsolescence

Ajeya Cotra

Thinking ahead to a future where AI decides everything

Platform
Substack
PricingOnly free issuesPublishesWeekly
Issues20SubscribersRead planned-obsolescence.org

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Latest Issues

Recent posts by this newsletter. Browse the email archive.

Six milestones for AI automation

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On Jan 14th, I made predictions about AI progress in 2026. My forecasts for software engineering capabilities already feel much too conservative.

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A decade ago, debates about AI x-risk often centered on AGI timelines. Was it over a century away, or was it plausibly as soon as 20 years? Today, even people relatively skeptical of x-risk often have crazy short timelines like ten years or...

2 months ago
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AI predictions for 2026

On December 13th, 2024, I registered predictions about what would happen with AI by the end of 2025, using this survey run by Sage. They asked five questions about benchmarks, four about the OpenAI Preparedness Framework risk categories, on...

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Authors

The writers behind this newsletter.

  • Ajeya Cotra

    Helping the world prepare for and navigate extremely powerful AI.

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